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Abstract Dynamic failure in the laboratory is commonly preceded by many foreshocks which accompany premonitory aseismic slip. Aseismic slip is also thought to govern earthquake nucleation in nature, yet, foreshocks are rare. Here, we examine how heterogeneity due to different roughness, damage and pore pressures affects premonitory slip and acoustic emission characteristics. High fluid pressures increase stiffness and reduce heterogeneity which promotes more rapid slip acceleration and shorter precursory periods, similar to the effect of low geometric heterogeneity on smooth faults. The associated acoustic emission activity in low-heterogeneity samples becomes increasingly dominated by earthquake-like double-couple focal mechanisms. The similarity of fluid pressure increase and roughness reduction suggests that increased stress and geometric homogeneity may substantially shorten the duration of foreshock activity. Gradual fault activation and extended foreshock activity is more likely observable on immature faults at shallow depth. 

Abstract Earthquakes rarely occur in isolation but rather as complex sequences of fore, main and aftershocks. Assessing the associated seismic hazard requires a holistic view of event interactions. We conduct frictional sliding experiments on faulted Westerly Granite samples at mid‐crustal stresses to investigate fault damage and roughness effects on aftershock generation. Abrupt laboratory fault slip is followed by periods of extended stress relaxation and aftershocks. Large roughness promotes less co‐seismic slip and high aftershock activity whereas smooth faults promote high co‐seismic slip with few aftershocks. Conditions close to slip instability generate lab‐quake sequences that exhibit similar statistical distributions to natural earthquakes. Aftershock productivity in the lab is linearly related to the residual strain energy on the fault which, in turn, is controlled by the level of surface heterogeneity. We conclude that roughness and damage govern slip stability and seismic energy partitioning between fore, main and aftershocks in lab and nature. 

Abstract The number of aftershocks increases with mainshock size following a well‐defined scaling law. However, excursions from the average behavior are common. This variability is particularly concerning for large earthquakes where the number of aftershocks varies by factors of 100 for mainshocks of comparable magnitude. Do observable factors lead to differences in aftershock behavior? We examine aftershock productivity relative to the global average for all mainshocks () from 1990 to 2019. A global map of earthquake productivity highlights the influence of tectonic regimes. Earthquake depth, lithosphere age, and plate boundary type correspond well with earthquake productivity. We investigate the role of mainshock attributes by compiling source dimensions, radiated seismic energy, stress drop, and a measure of slip heterogeneity based on finite‐fault source inversions for the largest earthquakes from 1990 to 2017. On an individual basis, stress drop, normalized rupture width, and aspect ratio most strongly correlate with aftershock productivity. A multivariate analysis shows that a particular set of parameters (dip, lithospheric age, and normalized rupture area) combines well to improve predictions of aftershock productivity on a cross‐validated data set. Our overall analysis is consistent with a model in which the volumetric abundance of nearby stressed faults controls the aftershock productivity rather than variations in source stress. Thus, we suggest a complementary approach to aftershock forecasts based on geological and rupture properties rather than local calibration alone.